With fears of a double-dip in the housing and stock market (and pretty much an end to civilization as we know it), I get a lot of questions about the number of distressed sales.
While I don’t have any inside knowledge about shadow inventories, I do know that we now have had several years of sales with foreclosures and short sales. While distressed sales keep driving down prices in some areas and neighborhoods, prices have stabilized and even climbed a bit in others.
To make sure I wasn’t totally out of touch with things, I compiled the statistics in the above graph from MRIS.
As can be seen, since 2009 the number of distressed sales (foreclosures & short sales) have been pretty consistent and were 29% in 2009, 23% in 2010 and 26% in 2011(YTD) of the total number of sales. So, the trend seems to be less distressed sales, not more.
So, what happens with prices? I don’t know – my best guess would be more of the same.